About Scenarios

Scenarios are a commonly-used technique for creatively exploring possible futures. To be useful, scenarios should be coherent and internally-consistent. It is difficult to do this without supporting processes and tools. The Scenario Toolkit can help make some of the steps less difficult.

A Scenario Process

The Scenario Toolkit is designed to work with the United Nations Environment Programme’s GEO scenario process. According to the summary for the GEO Resource Book, the steps in making a scenario are:

1. Clarifying the purpose and structure of the scenario exercise
   1. Establishing the nature and scope fo the scenarios
   2. Identifying and selecting stakeholders/participants
   3. Identifying themes, targets, indicators, and potential policies
2. Laying the foundation for the scenario
   1. Identifying driving forces
   2. Selecting critical uncertainties
   3. Creating a scenario framework
3. Developing and testing the actual scenarios
   1. Elaborating the scenario narratives
   2. Undertaking quantitative analysis
   3. Exploring policy

The Scenario Toolkit is intended to help mainly with Part 2 of this process, “Laying the foundation for the scenario”.

For More Information

The Scenario Toolkit was created by staff of the Stockholm Environment Institute for developing scenarios for sustainability studies. For more information about sustainability scenarios, see the site Scenarios for Sustainability.