Scenario Toolkit

Bayes Scenario Parameters

The Bayes Scenario Parameter generator is a tool for taking qualitative statements about scenario parameter values and turning them into quantitative values.

Download the Windows installation file for version 1.2.0.

The underlying algorithm uses Bayesian statistics. For details, see the paper

Eric Kemp-Benedict. 2009. “Converting qualitative assessments to quantitative assumptions: Bayes’ rule and the pundit’s wager”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(1), 167-171.

If you do not have access to the journal, an early version of the paper, which explains the methodology, is available on this site, Converting Qualitative Assessments to Quantitative Assumptions: A Bayesian Approach (PDF, about 190 KB).